Cascajun

A self described liberal Democrat who happens to be a professor at a research university has been conducting analysis of casualties in Iraq. He observes how the tabulations of casualties from different sources correlate and speculates about what this means for the surge.

Back in 2004 and 2005, there was an insurgency in Iraq driven by former Baathists who wanted to restore themselves to power. In 2006 and 2007, most people (and all Democrats) thought they witnessed a civil war break out in Iraq as casualties increased dramatically. What they actually witnessed was a declaration of war by al Qaeda and a response by Muqtada al Sadr’s Shiite militia. What you are watching now is al Qaeda starting to lose the war they started. I obviously don’t know what the future holds, but I can say that the recent trends are very favorable.

Hat tip: SouthCom.