Cascajun

Well, it’s encouraging to know the reporters at the Seattle PI consulted the experts:

Experts: Polonium is deadly if ingested

No kidding.

Today marks the end of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With nine named storms and five hurricanes, none hitting the United States, the season was nothing like the forecasts.

Predictions were:

• 17 named storms;
• 9 hurricanes;
• 81% Probablility of a major storm (Category 3 - 5) of hitting the U.S. coast.

I’m certainly not disappointed in the outcome, but I wonder if the scientists can’t reliably forecast hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin 6-months in advance, how reliable are forecasts that predict global climate decades in the future?

The office was closed for the day because of the snow storm. I took a walk on the South Bay Trail. They’ve forecast record low temperatures for the next two days. Brrr!

We had our first significant snow of the season in Bellingham on Friday night. Approximately 6-inches accumulated on the top of Galbraith Mountain. My friend Todd and I decided to grab our mountain bikes and go for a snow ride.

The ride up was tough and we soon had to shed our outer layers. Fortunately a couple of vehicles had been up the road ahead of us, breaking track. Even with good ruts to ride in, I was forced to walk about half the time. My single speed isn’t geared very well for climbing in the snow. The temperature was in the low 30’s with little to no breeze. We weren’t the only riders out, either. The two of us encountered at least 8 other riders before we left around 1pm.

We reached the top and parked our bikes. No need to lean them up or lay them down. They stuck quite well in the fluffy powder. That’s right, powder. This was some unusually dry snow for the PNW. It was quite apparent that we wouldn’t be going down across any clear cuts. The snow was just too deep for that. Our route down would have to be back down the road we had come up, or under the trees where accumulations were less than 4-inches.

The overcast conditions masked most of the views, but we still had a few glimpses of Lake Whatcom, Bellingham, and even a sliver of Mt. Baker. It’s pretty unusual to get this much snow in Bellingham before January. The Mt. Baker Ski Area reported their best Thanksgiving weekend in years with 24-inches of fresh snow falling in as many hours on top of a 100+ inch base.

Todd’s dog Nellie made two friends. They all frolicked and tussled in the snow while Todd and I plotted a route back down the mountain. The two other dogs were up with a WHIMPs trail crew and a film crew from the Bones Over Metal project. After a short break we headed down a trail known as Evolution and then on to Three Pigs. Riding downhill on single track in fresh snow is really fun and very challenging. I had some nice spills, usually when I rolled onto some off camber and uneven surface conditions hidden under the snow. Todd had a spectacular spill that landed him on his back in a small stream with his bike and legs in a tangled jumble. No injuries, but now he was soaking wet. It was time to get back to the truck.

The behavior of Iran and Syria illustrate their interpretation of the US electorate’s Novermber 7th decision.

• Syria assassinated a Lebanese cabinet minister yesterday and attempted the assassination of another.
• Iran & Syria together have re-supplied Hezbollah weapons caches.
• Iraq & Syria have resume diplomatic relations for the first time in more than twenty years.
• The presidents of Iran, Iraq, & Syria are having a summit in Tehran this weekend to consider a “strategic alliance”.

These are all clear signs that these regional powers are positioning themselves to fill the vacuum left by the expected departure of US forces from Iraq. The presumption of those in the the West who are encouraging the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq is that it would appease our foes in the region.

A quote from Winston Churchill comes to mind - “We seem to be very near the bleak choice between War and Shame. My feeling is that we shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in a little later on even more adverse terms than at present.”

As other’s have said, “Welcome back to the 1930’s.”

Following recent comments by Sen. Barbara Boxer that an average daily loss of three military people in Iraq is unacceptable, Dr. Philip R. O’Connor poses a question to the new congressional leadership in Washington: “What price in American lives are we prepared to pay for our national security policies?”

O’Connor then gives that casualty rate some perspective:

In the full sweep of U.S history, from the commencement of the Revolution on Lexington Green in April 1775, until the sunny morning of September 11, 2001, our average daily sacrifice has been between 14 and 15 military fatalities (1,217,000 fatalities/83,461 days = 14.6/day). Since 9/11, the average daily sacrifice has been 1.7 per day (3200/1900=1.68).

Human life is precious, period. Yet we can’t ignore the fact that security comes with a price. While gruesome to boil it down to math, it’s fair to pose the question if our leaders can flatly state that 3 military fatalities per day is too high.

O’Conner takes the analysis further, considering what’s been achieved at the expense of our fallen heroes in the military:

As things stand, the conflict with Islamic radicalism involves the lowest average daily military fatality rate of any long run national security era. It may worsen, it may improve. If Congress had been asked on September 12, 2001, to endorse a national defense posture against Islamic radicalism that traded up to 2 military fatalities per day over the subsequent five years in return for no additional homeland attacks, the deposing of terror friendly regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, the ending of Libya’s nuclear program, what would they have done? Would Congress accept that bargain today?

What price? If the US is to have a foreign policy that includes supporting freedom and democracy abroad, backed up with the implicit threat of military intervention, then this question must be considered.

Spook86:

…its a matter of concern when an adversary manages to penetrate the protective bubble around one of our carriers, and it apparently happened twice in recent days. Over the weekend, Iran’s Arabic language TV station aired footage of a U.S. aircraft carrier that was reportedly operating in the Persian Gulf. Tehran claimed that the video was taken by an Iranian surveillance drone, flying undetected over the carrier.

And, this morning, Bill Gertz of the Washington Times reported that a Chinese diesel-powered attack sub successfully shadowed the Kitty Hawk carrier battle group last month, as it operated in the waters off Okinawa. Defense officials told Gertz that the Song-class sub eventually surfaced within 5 miles of the Kitty Hawk, more than close enough to launch torpedoes or anti-ship missiles against the carrier. The incident was revealed as the Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Gary Roughead, began an official visit to China, creating a potentially embarrassing situation for him and the U.S. Navy.

Tuesday is Election Day.